Dumb Luck or Just Fuzzy Math?

Initially appeared on vox.com 12/19/2008.

I've been with mmpc for a year-and-a-half now and unfortunately did not sign up for the 401(k) plan until just a few days ago. Although i've kicked myself in the head numerous times thinking about the money i lost by procrastinating, on reflection i realize that i may actually have "made" money by not signing up.

See, i have a high tolerance for risk and my "investment strategy" consists of buying mostly equities (in my head, i'm still young and am willing to put it all - or at least most of it - on the line). If i had put money into the retirement account and put it all in "high-risk" mutual funds, i would be down 40-50% by now.

On the other hand, since i in fact did not put any money in the 401(k) and instead just gave the money to Uncle Sam at a rate of around 30-40%, i may have in fact saved myself the 10% difference by dumb luck alone.

This of course makes me feel better, but since i haven't claimed to be good in math since i was in 7th grade, i'm not quite sure the numbers add up. Does anyone else want to crunch the numbers and see?

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